How about an attitude stimulus?

—By Peter Francese

It’s awfully hard to sell anything when customers are not in a buying mood. And it’s even harder when virtually every talking head on TV is telling us how awful things will be for the U.S. economy in 2009. Maybe what we need is an attitude stimulus.

We probably have enough monetary stimulus. Between $700 billion for banks and maybe $825 billion for the rest of us, combined with the lowest mortgage interest rates we’ve ever seen, one might think that would enough to buy an attitude adjustment. We’ll see.

In the meantime, New Hampshire Realtors can take heart in the durability of the many advantages our state enjoys and know for sure that when the national economy does turn up, New Hampshire will be one of the first out of the tank.

With full knowledge that mere facts rarely change attitudes, here are a few things that set New Hampshire apart:

The December 2008 unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in New Hampshire, compared to 6.7 nationally and 6.2 percent in New England.

The job growth rate from November 2007 to November 2008 was up 0.6 percent in New Hampshire, compared to negative-1.4 percent nationally and negative-0.6 percent in New England.

New Hampshire's median family income is $74,600, fifth highest in the nation.

Thirty-year mortgage interest rates are drifting below 5 percent and, as Realtor Fred Doleac from Amherst has pointed out, the FHA is offering extraordinarily favorable terms for first-time home buyers with weak credit scores, including a $7,500 tax credit.

None of this may be enough to put potential home buyers in a better mood right away, but as soon as the weather warms up I think more of them will emerge and realize that excellent terms are being offered and that they can now afford a home.

Until then, all we can do is look back at last year's results with a heavy heart and anticipate that, with some help from our friends in Washington, this year will be an improvement. If so, it’ll be the first up year for home sales in four years. We’re due.

New Hampshire Realtors sold almost 10,200 residential homes in 2008 and about 2,750 condominiums. Residential sales were down 15 percent, and the median home price of $235,000 was 10 percent below the 2007 median. Condominium sales were 34 percent below 2007, and their median sales price of $180,000 was 5 percent below 2007.

Residential unit sales last year were 37 percent below their peak in 2005, but condo sales were less than half of what they were in 2005. Interviews with several Realtors suggest that it’s been much harder to sell a condo unit when an identical unit nearby is in foreclosure or when the seller is under water. One reason for these problems: More condos than residential units were purchased within the past five years.

In the table below, note the percent change in unit sales from 2007 to 2008. What we can see is that while sales declined in every county, there was considerable variation between counties. While sales declined the least last year in Cheshire and Coos, median home prices dropped the most in those two counties. Almost half of all sales statewide took place in Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties, where the median values were the highest for the year.

2008 NH residential (non-condominium) sales